Abstract:
Objective: To evaluate the association between the Geriatric
Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) at ICU admission and mortality
in patients with heart failure complicated by sepsis, a high
risk population in which the prognostic value of this validated
malnutrition risk assessment tool remains underexplored.
Methods: Patients with heart failure and sepsis were identified
from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-
Ⅳ) database and stratified into four GNRI groups. The primary
endpoints were 28-day and 365-day all-cause mortality. Survival
analysis used Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards
models. Linearity was assessed using restricted cubic splines
(RCS), while GNRI’s predictive performance was evaluated using
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
Results: Altogether, 1713 patients with heart failure complicated
by sepsis were identified in the present study. Kaplan-Meier
analysis revealed 28-day mortality rates of 40.44% (high-risk)
vs. 25.27% (no-risk) (P<.001), with a similar trend for 365-day
mortality (63.75 % vs. 43.96%, P<.001). RCS confirmed a linear
inverse relationship between GNRI and mortality. Cox regression
demonstrated that each unit GNRI increase reduced 28-day
(hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.98–1.00)
and 365-day mortality risk (HR, 0.98; 95% CI 0.98–0.99). ROC
analysis indicated a moderate predictive value of GNRI for
28-day all-cause mortality (AUC=0.58, sensitivity=66.61%,
specificity=45.62%, P<.001) and 365-day all-cause mortality
(AUC=0.60, sensitivity=66.52%, specificity=51.28%, P<.001).
Furthermore, the addition of GNRI significantly enhanced the
predictive performance of the SAPSⅡ (AUC increased from 0.69to 0.70, P=.02), SOFA (AUC increased from 0.73 to 0.74, P=.02),
and LODS (AUC increased from 0.67 to 0.68, P=.03) scores, with
these improvements achieving statistical significance.
Conclusions: Admission GNRI is an independent risk factor for in
hospital mortality in ICU patients with heart failure complicated
by sepsis. GNRI scores serve as a valuable prognostic indicator for
assessing mortality risk in this patient population.